While the traditional media will attempt to spin last night's victory in the Pennsylvania primary as rationale enough for Hillary Clinton to continue her destructive candidacy for the nomination, I suspect that once people begin paying attention to what matters - the pledged delegate count - they will recognize that Barack Obama still leads by a virtually insurmountable number.
Despite her numerous built-in advantages in the state, Clinton ended up winning the state by 9.4% of the vote - and netted only 10 pledged delegates in doing so. Below I will break down the results by congressional district, using USA Today as a source for the CD numbers, combined with those from CNN and the Pennsylvania Secretary of State's website.
Update: I have changed CD-07 and CD-13 based on newer information. See the district breakdown for updated info.
Update #2: See notes on CD-11 below.
PA CD-01: 7 delegates
As suspected, this district went to Obama; however, he was able to outpace my initial projections and win the district (according to nearly-complete results at USA Today's website) with 66.89% of the vote - well above the 64.3% threshold needed for a 5-2 split. Given that these are the results with 97% of the precincts counted, he will be able to maintain this delegate split.
Allocation of CD-01 delegates
Barack Obama: 5 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
PA CD-02: 9 delegates
As I wrote in my final delegate estimate, Obama ended up clearing the 72.22% hurdle needed for a 7-2 delegate split easily. With 94% of the results in, Obama has 78.30% of the vote. He needed 83.33% to reach an 8-1 split, but that wouldn't have happened unless every last voter in the district turned out.
Allocation of CD-02 delegates
Barack Obama: 7 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
PA CD-03: 5 delegates
USA Today only lists the results as being 55% in - and Clinton leading with 63.50% of the vote. However, the rest of the counties that make up the district aside from Erie did not vote for Clinton over the 70% threshold, making it highly unlikely she'll be able to earn the 4-1 delegate split.
Allocation of CD-03 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
PA CD-04: 5 delegates
While I initially thought this district had potential to be one of the districts that went 4-1 for Clinton, she wasn't able to reach the split, as I predicted in my final estimates. She ended up winning 65.87% of the vote, which only amounts to netting one delegate.
Allocation of CD-04 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
PA CD-05: 4 delegates
Penn State, located in Centre County, ended up coming through for Obama. He won 60.1% of the vote in the district, according to complete results from the SoS website. The incomplete results (with 56% in) show Clinton leading with 55.73% of the vote, so it remains highly unlikely she will broach the 62.5% threshold to gain the 3-1 split.
Allocation of CD-05 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
PA CD-06: 6 delegates
For some reason, the USA Today website was erratic in updating this district and CD-07. With 37% in, they show Obama leading with 54.50% of the vote. While it looks like he's in spitting distance of the 58.5% needed for a 4-2 split, the main counties that largely encompass the district did not go to Obama by those margins by any stretch (Chester went to Obama by about 10 points; Clinton eked out a victory in Montgomery). Therefore, it's safe to assume an even split here.
Allocation of CD-06 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates
PA CD-07: 7 delegates
This is a district that may still flip. With 82% counted, Obama shows a narrow edge over Clinton at the USA Today website with 50.99% of the vote. It's possible this may flip, depending on what precincts are included. However, since the district is based in Delaware County (which went to Obama by about 10 points), it's highly likely that he will take the 50% + 1 that is needed to take away the extra delegate.
Update: Clinton now holds a 616-vote lead over Obama with 92% counted. I've currently moved the allocation to Clinton, but given that I don't know what precincts haven't been counted, this is still a toss-up.
Update #2: With 94% counted now, Clinton still holds a 487-vote edge.
Allocation of CD-07 delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
PA CD-08: 7 delegates
This turned out to be an unfortunate surprise. While I thought Obama would perform well largely due to the wealthier portions of upper Bucks County, that did not materialize, and Obama was barely able to escape with a 4-3 delegate split in favor of Clinton. With 97% in at USA Today, Clinton has 63.38% of the vote - barely out of reach of the 64.3% needed for a 5-2 split.
Allocation of CD-08 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates
PA CD-09: 3 delegates
As I thought, Clinton won this district handily (she's around 64%, with 70% of the precincts counted) - but nowhere near the 85% needed to sweep all 3 delegates.
Allocation of CD-09 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 1 pledged delegate
PA CD-10: 4 delegates
Northeast Pennsylvania was Clinton's base, and it doesn't appear Bob Casey's endorsement prevented the 3-1 split from occurring here. Clinton has 64.50% of the vote with 70% of the precincts, according to USA Today. Given how she dominated the region, it's unlikely that she will fall below the 62.5% threshold once all is said and done.
Allocation of CD-10 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 1 pledged delegate
PA CD-11: 5 delegates
This is another district that could possibly change. USA Today only counts 36% of the precincts and shows Clinton with 62.49% of the vote. Given that Clinton surpassed the 70% mark in some of these counties (Lackwanna, Luzerne, and Carbon), it's probably the results from Columbia and Monroe Counties (where she won 60% and 58% of the vote, respectively) that could hold her below the 70% mark. While I tentatively allocate this as 3-2 in favor of Clinton, it is very possible the final split will be 4-1.
Update #2: With 60% of the vote in, Clinton has approximately 68% of the vote. I think she'll be on track to break the 70% threshold and take 4 out of the 5 delegates now.
Allocation of CD-11 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 1 pledged delegate
PA CD-12: 5 delegates
USA Today has fairly incomplete results listed (Clinton has roughly 72% of the vote with 57% in), but they're enough of a barometer to call this 4-1 in favor of Clinton. Most of the counties included in this heavily gerrymandered district went for Clinton well over 70%, so it shouldn't be difficult for her to maintain the 4-1 split.
Allocation of CD-12 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 1 pledged delegate
PA CD-13: 7 delegates
This was also somewhat of a surprise. I figured that Clinton would win it, particularly given that Northeast Philadelphia - which is highly unfriendly territory for Obama - would go big for Clinton. With 60% in at USA Today, though, it shows Clinton with an astounding 70.78% of the vote. Given that Montgomery County likely still needs to be counted, these numbers will probably come down a bit. However, I don't think they'll fall below the 64.3% level that would make it a 4-3 split.
Update: USA Today has updated the totals, and Clinton ended up garnering only 61.53% of the vote. I have thus updated the delegate totals to reflect the 4-3 split.
Allocation of CD-13 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 4 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 3 pledged delegates
PA CD-14: 7 delegates
While Obama ended up losing Allegheny County (which includes Pittsburgh) by roughly 8.8%, he won the city of Pittsburgh and was able to snatch the extra delegate from this district (which I thought Clinton would win on the strength of working-class white voters).
Allocation of CD-14 delegates
Barack Obama: 4 pledged delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
PA CD-15: 5 delegates
This was a region Obama would have had to perform extremely well in to have had a shot at an upset, but that didn't happen. However, Clinton didn't come close to the 70% marker needed for a 4-1 split (she has 60.84% of the vote with 92% counted).
Allocation of CD-15 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
PA CD-16: 4 delegates
Due to Obama's strong performance in Lancaster County (along with Chester County), he currently holds the lead by about 10 percentage points in this district. However, he won't come close to the 62.5% needed to earn anything other than a delegate split.
Allocation of CD-16 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
PA CD-17: 4 delegates
The district ended up being closer than I thought (Clinton has 52.69% of the vote with 85% allocated), in large part due to Obama's strength in Harrisburg. As I thought, the district ended up being a delegate split as a result.
Allocation of CD-17 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
PA CD-18: 5 delegates
With 85% counted at USA Today, Clinton currently has 65.01% of the vote. While she may get closer to the 70% threshold for a 4-1 split, it is highly unlikely to happen due to the portion of Allegheny County that is included in the district.
Allocation of CD-18 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 3 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
PA CD-19: 4 delegates
Clinton won this district handily (by 10 percentage points or so, with 100% counted), but that's nowhere close to the 62.5% threshold.
Allocation of CD-19 delegates
Hillary Clinton: 2 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 2 pledged delegates
At-Large Delegates (35 delegates) and Pledged PLEO Delegates (20 delegates)
I predicted a 54.4%-46.6% popular vote margin for Clinton over Obama over at The Field, which comes out to a margin of 8.8%. Using CNN's polling results, Clinton currently holds a lead over Obama by a margin of 54.69%-45.31% - which works out to a 9.38% margin of victory. As such, my final estimates of the allocation of the at-large and pledged PLEO delegates are the same, giving Clinton an extra 5 delegates from the statewide vote.
Allocation of at-large delegates
Hillary Clinton: 19 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 16 pledged delegates
Allocation of pledged PLEO delegates
Hillary Clinton: 11 pledged delegates
Barack Obama: 9 pledged delegates
Conclusion
In sum, Obama did exactly what he needed to do in Pennsylvania - he drew close enough to Clinton to keep her delegates gains to minimal level. From the results above, the most Clinton can net out is 12 (85-73) - assuming CD-07 and CD-11 end up breaking more in her favor. The best-case scenario for Obama is to maintain a slim margin in CD-07 and bring the total down to a net of 8 delegates (83-75).
The takeaway? Northern Sky puts it best; Clinton now needs to win 71% of the remaining pledged delegates to catch up to Obama - a number that increased after last night's results.
Put further in perspective: after last night's results, Clinton has gained a grand total of 5 pledged delegates from the states that have voted from March 4th on. That's not enough to even have a remote shot of winning the pledged delegate count, and with the state with the most pledged delegates left (North Carolina, with 115) leaning heavily towards Obama...well, you get the idea.
Hillary Clinton didn't win Pennsylvania by a big enough of margin last night - plain and simple.